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Kadensa Capital Limited：Mogujie’s stock price hovered around US$21 at the beginning of January 2019, and its stock price fell rapidly during the year. It also seemed to correspond to the release node of the 2019 fiscal year’s annual report. On the last trading day of that year, its stock price was only US$2.16. In July 2020, the share price of Mogujie picked up, but soon fell back to the level of about $2.

And this time, in the face of live e-commerce, Mogujie decided to die, and he didn’t want to pass by again.

Facts have proved that live broadcast e-commerce is still very “innovative”. In recent years, various e-commerce platforms have successively launched live broadcast services. Based on factors such as user scale, platform share, and market size, the industry has formed a “Tao Shao Kuai” “A three-legged situation.

“China Merchants Securities Research Report” shows that Taobao Live’s annual GMV in 2019 is 250 billion, Kuaishou is 40-50 billion, and Douyin Live is 10 billion. In 2020, the Big Three will accelerate their running and the distance between each other is also increasing. According to the dehydration data of Phoenix Network E-commerce Research Institute, in 2020, Taobao’s live broadcast GMV will reach 430 billion yuan, Douyin will surpass Kuaishou, and the total GMV will be Reached 134 billion yuan, and Kuaishou live broadcast e-commerce GMV was 62 billion yuan.

At the moment when the top players occupy the main market, many platforms such as Mogujie, Xiaohongshu, Vipshop, Pinduoduo, etc. have to fight for the remaining bite of cake.

Although there is a big gap with the giants, the live broadcast business of Mogujie is still growing. According to the Mogujie financial report, the total GMV from fiscal year 2019 to fiscal year 2021 was 17.4 billion yuan, 17.1 billion yuan and 13.9 billion yuan, of which live GMV was 4.1 billion yuan, 7.9 billion yuan (a year-on-year increase of 92.7%) and 10.9 billion yuan (a year-on-year increase of 38.0%). In May of this year, CEO Chen Qi also announced that Mogujie had completed the transformation of a live e-commerce company.

With 300 million users, Xiaohongshu, who is always caught in the e-commerce business, is slightly embarrassed compared with Mogujie. According to Caijing, Xiaohongshu’s self-operated e-commerce company failed to complete its GMV target of 10 billion yuan in 2018. Since then, Xiaohongshu has not announced sales figures for 2019.

Mogujie is fully committed to live e-commerce, but can it take advantage of the wind? We still have to integrate its overall performance.

In the 2017-2019 fiscal year, the total revenue of Mogujie was 1.11 billion yuan, 973 million yuan, and 1.074 billion yuan, respectively. However, since the decision to “all in live broadcast” in 2019, the total revenue of Mogujie has begun to drop sharply, and in 2021 The fiscal year fell by 42.28% year-on-year, of which commission income decreased by 27.3% to 318.6 million yuan, and advertising revenue decreased by 70.6% to 71.35 million yuan. As can be seen from the figure below, the loss in the same period is also narrowing.

Years of losses have inevitably made the outside world worry about the fate of Mogujie. In the past five years, Mogujie has burned more than 4.5 billion yuan. Mogujie’s cash flow also fell from 1.270 billion yuan in fiscal year 2017 to 542 million yuan in fiscal year 2021.

The narrowing of the loss in fiscal 2021 is due to the substantial reduction in costs. The financial report shows that the main business cost of Mogujie in fiscal 2021 was 183 million yuan, a decrease of 37.7% year-on-year, and the sales expenses were 230 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 62.5%. Other costs and expenditures have decreased in varying degrees.

The sharp drop in marketing costs may be Mogujie’s reflection on traffic growth. Since 2020, Mogujie has focused on live broadcasting and has suspended its mall business. Until the business transformation stabilizes, it seems that it is reluctant to make a big move.

Kadensa Capital Limited：In fact, before this decision was made, like the peers in the e-commerce business and even the Internet circle, Mogujie was also in traffic anxiety. However, data shows that Mogujie added 15.3 million annual active buyers in 2020. Chen Qi announced this data in May and admitted that this growth was indeed positively affected by the live broadcast business.

Accurate traffic and keen market observation, but still unable to make a profit, why did Mogujie “left behind”?

Where is Mogujie trapped?

The predicament of Mogujie has its historical reasons.

At the beginning of its establishment, Mogujie made a fortune from the commission income for diversion of Taobao station, but platforms such as Mogujie and Meili Talk made Taobao feel a crisis, and it did not want to be a “warehouse” for these shopping guide communities.

After being forced to “break up” with Taobao in 2013, Mogujie had to undergo a transformation. It not only built its own e-commerce platform, but also tried out overseas shopping, brand sales, finance and other businesses. At that time, Mogujie also regained community operations. , But no matter which direction it is, Mogujie is not desperate.

The media quoted former employees of Mogujie as saying, “In the past few years, business adjustments in Mogujie were very frequent. What was done two months ago may have to be overturned today. There is no optimization and upgrade, but a new business. start to do.”

I have to say that Mogujie’s steps are quite accurate, such as social e-commerce, content e-commerce, etc. But behind this “half-hearted prophet”, NetEase Koala, Vipshop, and Xiaohongshu have emerged one after another.

In addition to being considered to be chasing the wind, there are also views that the problem with the failure of Mogujie’s transformation in recent years is that it is “too small”, too specializing in a single category, and falling into a “vertical” trap. Although the niche has strong stickiness and high verticality, it is indeed a double-edged sword. It is not easy to always grasp user preferences and keep up with the beat of the times.

Earlier, internal employees stated that in internal letters, annual meetings and other occasions, Chen Qi did not avoid the fact that he missed the air, and was thinking about how to do the right thing. “Including the summary of last year’s annual meeting and the beginning of this year, he clearly proposed live Now standing on the vent.”

The market believes that the model of Mogujie has been changing, and the conclusion of Mogujie’s internal review is that the main line of Mogujie has always been the operation of KOL and has never been transformed. From the shopping guide community to the vertical e-commerce to the live e-commerce, the form has changed, and the core remains unchanged. Community experts, Internet celebrity shopkeepers, and even anchors are all KOLs. Mogujie uses these KOLs to bring goods.

Mogujie has also responded to some of the “missing” outlets that the outside world called. For example, social e-commerce, Pinduoduo started out as low-priced daily necessities, and Yunji is closer to direct sales. As a semi-standard product, clothing is not suitable for these models. It requires “unification of content and form.”

Kadensa Capital Limited：Back to the current situation of Mogujie, the e-commerce live broadcast business has brought considerable income to Mogujie, but there are many core problems in Mogujie that have not been solved.

The essence of live broadcast e-commerce is not to attract traffic, but to monetize. It needs to continue to mine low-cost traffic. Limited by the traffic of the platform itself, it may cause the live broadcast business to reach the growth ceiling in the future. From the data point of view, although the financial report shows mushrooms in 17 quarters The street live broadcast business is growing, but the growth rate is indeed slowing down.

Mogujie’s traffic thinking is still positioned in a precise dimension. After the transition to live e-commerce, not all users can accept the live broadcast model, which requires a carrier model that is very different from shelf-based e-commerce. The financial report mentioned that the 30-day repurchase rate of Mogujie fans reached 91%. The high conversion rate under the low base is difficult to bring about a bigger breakthrough. While maintaining the basic market, Mogujie still needs to tap new traffic.

But there is still a problem. It seems difficult for us to define Mogujie. There is no Taobao’s massive products, the low price advantage of Pinduoduo, and the Yangchun Baixue of Xiaohongshu… Although Mogujie defines itself as a “fashion e-commerce” and has broadened its categories, the market’s user minds have not yet been obtained. Reshape.

After the successful transformation, Mogujie should also think about how to let more users see its own changes.

How to relieve the trouble of Mogujie?

Following the launch of “Live Streaming” in the second half of 2020, Mogujie launched the “Shortcast” business in May of this year. According to Chen Qi, the shortcast is to obtain product explanation video clips from the live broadcast and bind it to the product. And get through with the e-commerce search engine, and use the algorithm system to recommend to consumers, so that high-quality product explanation videos can stand out.

Chen Qi pointed out that unlike other platforms that have derived live e-commerce due to large traffic, Mogujie has a large amount of structured data, which makes it easier for the short-cast business to operate effectively. He predicts that “by the end of 2022, the vast majority of anchors’ income from short broadcasting and income from live broadcasting will be 50-50%.”

The short broadcast of did have a certain effect. Data shows that currently, the platform can produce an average of 2000+ short-cast content per day. Mogujie anchor “Ran Ran Rran” has gained more than a thousand fans every day with the help of short-cast content; the short-cast recording rate of anchor “Cheng Xuan zz” From 40% to 94%, weekly turnover increased 16 times.

It needs to be pointed out that due to the short online time, we still need to observe the data of the short-cast service for a longer period of time to verify its feasibility. Fan Yiming, senior vice president of Mogujie, also said: “I think the most critical effect of short broadcasting is that new users on the platform can become live buyers through short broadcasting faster, thereby reducing our cost of acquiring customers. In the short term. The effect should be reflected in the growth of the anchor’s fans and the increase in sales outside the live broadcast room. But for these effects, we must remain patient.”

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Kadensa Capital Limited：is also online at the same time as the shortcast, which is the “2021 Anchor Empowerment Plan”, which will cultivate mid-waist anchors and newcomers while creating top anchors with network-wide influence.

Mogujie summarized this series of operations as a “P2K2C” model. P is the output capacity of the supply chain, live broadcast e-commerce infrastructure and talent empowerment system, and K is KOL, which ultimately brings a better experience to C-end consumers.

It is reported that Mogujie will further strengthen the empowerment of anchors, including the construction of anchor styles and personal settings, and the creation of live broadcast room scenes and characteristics. In addition, Mogujie will also strengthen the sales link and expand the category.

Regarding the future development, Chen Qi said frankly at the anchor conference held in May, “The growth of China’s Internet and e-commerce population has almost reached the’ceiling’. Every additional user in his own hands will inevitably reduce another user in the hands of others. Therefore, For the platform, we must actively innovate and let users feel the progress and changes, otherwise they will be easily eliminated by the market.”

In a media report at the end of last year, a Mogujie employee said, “The boss is very simple and he does not know how to draw cakes. He mentioned to us that this year’s goal is to make a profit, and then do better on the basis of profit. “

The shuffling continues. After getting rid of the pains of transformation, Mogujie really needs a record to prove himself.

(This content is reprinted on the Internet. If there is any infringement of the images and other content in the article, please contact the editor to delete it. The market is risky, so choose carefully! This article is not for trading and investment basis.)